Bài báo khoa học Truy cập mở Tập 15, Số 05, tr. 167-180

Tái cấu trúc tài chính khi nhà đầu tư chịu rủi ro thu hồi vốn: kinh nghiệm quốc tế cho Dự án đường sắt tốc độ cao trên trục Bắc– Nam

Nguyễn Thị Hồng, Nguyễn Mậu Phúc, Nguyễn Lê Khoa, Nguyễn Tuấn Anh

  • Nguyễn Tuấn Anh Tác giả liên hệ
Ngày xuất bản
15/9/2026
DOI
https://doi.org/10.55228/j.uth.150515

Tóm tắt

Khi nhà đầu tư đường sắt tốc độ cao phải tự thu hồi vốn từ doanh thu, câu hỏi đặt ra là nhà nước có phải can thiệp hay không và vào lúc nào. Bài báo dùng phương pháp so sánh trường hợp tập trung cho 23 hợp đồng và quyết định giao thực hiện tuyến tốc độ cao mới từ năm 1990 đến 2017. Tỷ lệ vốn nhà đầu tư phải tự thu hồi được tính trên cùng một cơ sở giá trị, và kết quả được kiểm tra trên 384 tổ hợp lựa chọn mã hóa. Ở 6 trường hợp nhà đầu tư phải tự thu hồi hơn một nửa vốn, cả 4 trường hợp đã có kết quả đều phải được nhà nước tái cấu trúc tài chính, 2 trường hợp ngay từ trước khi khai thác. Ở 6 hợp đồng đối tác công tư mà nhà nước chịu phần lớn vốn, 2 hợp đồng phải tái cấu trúc. Tỷ lệ ở nhóm thứ nhất không thấp hơn 3/4 khi đổi từng lựa chọn mã hóa, nhưng giảm mạnh khi nhiều lựa chọn bất lợi được áp dụng cùng lúc vì mẫu chỉ có 4 trường hợp quan sát được. Kết quả mô tả điều đã xảy ra, chưa xác định được nguyên nhân. Đối với Dự án đường sắt tốc độ cao trên trục Bắc – Nam, khi xem xét đối tác công tư hoặc đầu tư kinh doanh, cần làm rõ tỷ lệ vốn nhà đầu tư tự thu hồi, phần ưu đãi trong khoản vay và lịch giải ngân hỗ trợ của nhà nước, khả năng huy động vốn và rủi ro kết nối giữa các dự án thành phần.

Từ khóa

  • Đường sắt tốc độ cao
  • Đối tác công tư
  • Rủi ro thu hồi vốn
  • Tái cấu trúc tài chính
  • So sánh trường hợp

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